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GGB stock forecast, quote, news & analysis

Gerdau SA produces steel and steel products... Show more

Industry: #Steel
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A.I.Advisor
Oct 28, 2026

Gerdau (GGB) Stock Analysis: North American Margin Strength Offsets Brazilian Import Pressures

Key Takeaways

  • GGB shares traded near $4.42, roughly 7.5% lower than a month earlier, even after a well-received third-quarter 2026 earnings report.
  • Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 10% quarter over quarter to R$3.8 billion, with a 20.2% margin—the highest since the second quarter of 2023.
  • North America generated more than three-quarters of EBITDA and a 27.7% margin, supported by demand from data centers, renewable energy, and non-residential construction.
  • Brazil remained under pressure from elevated steel imports, oversupply, and high interest rates, posting a 10.7% EBITDA margin.
  • Free cash flow jumped to R$1.4 billion, net debt/EBITDA fell to 0.58x, and both S&P and Fitch revised their outlooks to positive.
  • For additional context, explore Gerdau's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
  • Discover how automated strategies are positioning across the market on Trending AI Robots.

Current Market Snapshot

Gerdau's American depositary receipts (ADRs) trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker GGB, while the company's shares also list on Brazil's B3 exchange. After a strong run over the prior twelve months, the ADR pulled back modestly in recent weeks, trading near $4.42 compared with roughly $4.78 a month earlier. The shares slipped in the sessions immediately following the company's October 27, 2026 third-quarter release, reflecting investor caution about Brazilian demand and valuation after an extended rally rather than concern about the reported numbers themselves. Within the steel and basic materials sector, sentiment remains bifurcated: North American pricing and demand are holding up well, while Brazil contends with import competition and softer domestic activity.

Gerdau (GGB) Business Overview and Competitive Position

Gerdau S.A. is one of the world's leading producers of long steel and the largest such producer in the Americas. Headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil, the company operates a geographically diversified network spanning Brazil, North America, and South America, producing rebar, structural beams, billets, wire rod, and special bar quality steel for construction, automotive, agriculture, energy, and industrial customers. A defining feature of Gerdau's model is vertical integration: iron ore from its mining assets and scrap-based electric arc furnace capacity help control input costs. North America now contributes the bulk of consolidated profitability, a shift that has reduced the company's reliance on the more volatile Brazilian market. Investors follow GGB for its exposure to U.S. infrastructure and reshoring demand, its disciplined balance sheet, and its consistent shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.

Recent Developments Driving GGB

Gerdau's third-quarter 2026 results were the central driver of recent price action. Adjusted EBITDA reached R$3.8 billion with a 20.2% margin, while adjusted net income rose to R$1.5 billion, or R$0.79 per share. North America was again the standout, with EBITDA of R$2.9 billion and a 27.7% margin—the highest in four years—as higher realized U.S. steel prices more than offset seasonally lower volumes. Management cited a strong order backlog tied to renewable energy and data-center projects. Brazil showed gradual improvement, with a 10.7% margin, though imports, oversupply, and elevated interest rates continued to weigh on demand. South America EBITDA fell 22% quarter over quarter, largely on scheduled maintenance in Argentina.

Beyond earnings, free cash flow of R$1.4 billion marked a sixfold sequential improvement, and the company declared a R$0.34 per-share dividend payable in December. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch both moved their outlooks to positive, reaffirming investment-grade ratings. Strategically, Gerdau began operations at its Pindamonhangaba recycling center, neared completion of the Miguel Burnier iron ore project for a fourth-quarter start-up, and advanced the Midlothian mill expansion in Texas. Brazil's re-elected administration is expected to continue trade-defense measures, which management views as supportive for domestic competitiveness.

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2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch

Heading into the end of 2026 and the start of 2027, investors are likely to focus on several factors. In North America, realized steel prices, scrap costs, and the pace of demand from non-residential construction, energy, and data centers will shape margins, with a scheduled Midlothian maintenance shutdown expected to create a temporary cost headwind. In Brazil, the key watch items are steel import penetration, progress on antidumping measures, and the trajectory of interest rates and construction demand. The ramp-up of the Miguel Burnier mine and the Midlothian expansion are positioned to contribute to 2027 results, and management has scheduled an Investor Day for December 4, 2026 to detail its Brazil restructuring plan. Currency movements between the Brazilian real and U.S. dollar also materially influence reported results. Competitors such as Nucor (NUE) provide a read-through on North American long-steel pricing trends.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for GGB with price predictions
Oct 28, 2026

GGB in -5.05% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 28, 2026

Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where GGB declined for three days, in 162 of 261 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GGB as a result. In 52 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GGB turned negative on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 50%.

GGB moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for GGB's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

Following a +4.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GGB advanced for three days, in 204 of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.

GGB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 215 of 275 cases where GGB Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.165) is normal, around the industry mean (2.228). P/E Ratio (3.922) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.759). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.037) settles around the average of (0.070) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.729) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GGB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

A.I.Advisor
published Dividends

GGB paid dividends on September 18, 2026

Gerdau SA GGB Stock Dividends
А dividend of $0.09 per share was paid with a record date of September 18, 2026, and an ex-dividend date of August 21, 2026. Read more...
A.I.Advisor
published Highlights

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE), ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT), Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF).

Industry description

The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Steel Industry is 10.45B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 5K to 61.66B. NUE holds the highest valuation in this group at 61.66B. The lowest valued company is ADTC at 5K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Steel Industry was 3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 5%, and the average quarterly price growth was 29%. HLP experienced the highest price growth at 46%, while SID experienced the biggest fall at -27%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Steel Industry was 18%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 50% and the average quarterly volume growth was 75%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 43
P/E Growth Rating: 52
Price Growth Rating: 51
SMR Rating: 77
Profit Risk Rating: 68
Seasonality Score: 20 (-100 ... +100)